Journal articles

Skjold, Benjamin, Simon Richard Steinkamp, Colm Connaughton, Oliver James Hulme, and Ole Peters. 2026. “Ergodicity Transformations Predict Human Decision-Making Under Risk.” PLOS Computational Biology 22 (7): e1014409. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014409.

Baumann, Dominik, Erfaun Noorani, James Price, Ole Peters, Colm Connaughton, and Thomas B. Schön. 2025. “Reinforcement Learning with Non-Ergodic Reward Increments: Robustness via Ergodicity Transformations.” Transactions on Machine Learning Research. https://openreview.net/forum?id=eakh1Edffd.

Rodrigues, Francisco A, Thomas Peron, Colm Connaughton, Jürgen Kurths, and Yamir Moreno. 2025. “A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting Dynamical Observables from Network Structure.” Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 481 (2306). https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2024.0435.

Oliveira Roster, Kirstin, Tiago Martinelli, Colm Connaughton, Mauricio Santillana, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2024. “Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Dengue in Brazil: Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Changes in Surveillance and Transmission.” PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 18 (12): e0012726. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012726.

Hulme, Oliver, Arne Vanhoyweghen, Colm Connaughton, et al. 2023. “Reply to ‘the Limitations of Growth-Optimal Approaches to Decision Making Under Uncertainty’.” Econ Journal Watch 20 (2): 335–48.

Pineda, Aruane M, Paul Kent, Colm Connaughton, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2023. “Machine Learning-Based Prediction of q-Voter Model in Complex Networks.” Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2023 (12): 123402. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ad06a6.

Pineda, Aruane M, Sandro M Reia, Colm Connaughton, José F Fontanari, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2023. “Cultural Heterogeneity Constrains Diffusion of Innovations.” Europhysics Letters 143 (4): 42003. https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/aceeab.

Roster, Kirstin, Colm Connaughton, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2022. “Machine-Learning–Based Forecasting of Dengue Fever in Brazilian Cities Using Epidemiologic and Meteorological Variables.” American Journal of Epidemiology 191 (10): 1803–12. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwac090.

Roster, Kirstin, Colm Connaughton, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2022. “Forecasting New Diseases in Low-Data Settings Using Transfer Learning.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 161: 112306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112306.

Alexandre, Michel, Thiago Christiano Silva, Colm Connaughton, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2021. “The Drivers of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Data-Driven Machine Learning Analysis.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 153: 111588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111588.

Kalair, Kieran, and Colm Connaughton. 2021. “Dynamic and Interpretable Hazard-Based Models of Traffic Incident Durations.” Frontiers in Future Transportation 2: 15. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffutr.2021.669015.

Kalair, Kieran, and Colm Connaughton. 2021. “Anomaly Detection and Classification in Traffic Flow Data from Fluctuations in the Flow–Density Relationship.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 127: 103178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2021.103178.

Kalair, Kieran, Colm Connaughton, and Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro. 2021. “A Non-Parametric Hawkes Process Model of Primary and Secondary Accidents on a UK Smart Motorway.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 70 (1): 80–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12450.

Esenturk, Emre, and Colm Connaughton. 2020. “Role of Zero Clusters in Exchange-Driven Growth with and Without Input.” Physical Review E 101 (5): 052134. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.101.052134.

Gessey-Jones, Thomas, Colm Connaughton, Robin Dunbar, et al. 2020. “Narrative Structure of a Song of Ice and Fire Creates a Fictional World with Realistic Measures of Social Complexity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (46): 28582–88. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006465117.

Velásquez-Rojas, Fátima, Paulo Cesar Ventura, Colm Connaughton, Yamir Moreno, Francisco A Rodrigues, and Federico Vazquez. 2020. “Disease and Information Spreading at Different Speeds in Multiplex Networks.” Physical Review E 102 (2): 022312. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.022312.

Silva, Paulo Cesar Ventura da, Fátima Velásquez-Rojas, Colm Connaughton, Federico Vazquez, Yamir Moreno, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2019. “Epidemic Spreading with Awareness and Different Timescales in Multiplex Networks.” Physical Review E 100 (3): 032313. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.100.032313.

Connaughton, Colm, Arghya Dutta, R Rajesh, Nana Siddharth, and Oleg Zaboronski. 2018. “Stationary Mass Distribution and Nonlocality in Models of Coalescence and Shattering.” Physical Review E 97 (2): 022137. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.97.022137.

Li, Ji, Thomas Wasley, Duong Ta, et al. 2018. “Micro Electronic Systems via Multifunctional Additive Manufacturing.” Rapid Prototyping Journal, ahead of print. https://doi.org/10.1108/rpj-02-2017-0033.

Connaughton, C., A. Dutta, R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2017. “Universality properties of steady driven coagulation with collisional evaporation.” EPL Europhys. Lett. 117 (1): 10002. https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/117/10002.

Woolcock, A., C. Connaughton, Merali Y., and F. Vazquez. 2017. “Fitness voter model: damped oscillations and anomalous consensus.” Phys. Rev. E 96: 032313. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.96.032313 .

Collyer, B., C. Connaughton, and D. Lockerby. 2016. “Importance Sampling Variance Reduction for the Fokker-Planck Rarefied Gas Particle Method .” J. Comp. Phys. 325: 116–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2016.08.008.

Ta, D., R. Carter, E. Esenturk, et al. 2016. “Dynamically controlled deposition of colloidal nanoparticles suspension in evaporating drops using laser radiation.” Soft Matter 12 (20): 4530–36. https://doi.org/10.1039/c6sm00465b.

Ta, D. V., A. Dunn, T. J. Wasley, et al. 2016. “Laser Textured Surface Gradients.” Appl. Surface Sci. 371: 583–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsusc.2016.03.054 .

Ta, D. V., A. Dunn, T. J. Wasley, et al. 2016. “Laser Textured Superhydrophobic Surfaces and Their Applications for Homogeneous Spot Deposition.” Appl. Surface Sci. 365: 153–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsusc.2016.01.019.

Stringer, J., T. M. Althagathi, C. W. Christopher, et al. 2016. “Integration of Additive Manufacturing and Inkjet Printed Electronics: A Potential Route to Parts with Embedded Multifunctionality.” Manufacturing Rev. 3: 12. https://doi.org/10.1051/mfreview/2016011.

Li, J., T. Wasley, T. T. Nguyen, et al. 2016. “Hybrid Additive Manufacturing of 3D Electronic Systems.” J. Micromech. Microeng. 26 (10): 105005. https://doi.org/10.1088/0960-1317/26/10/105005.

Bel, G., C. Connaughton, M. Toots, and M. M. Bandi. 2016. “Grid-Scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power.” New J. Phys. 18 (2): 023015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/18/2/023015.

Connaughton, C., S. Nazarenko, and B. Quinn. 2015. “Rossby and drift wave turbulence and zonal flows: The Charney–Hasegawa–Mima model and its extensions.” Phys. Reports 604: 1–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2015.10.009.

Ta, D. V., A. Dunn, T. J. Wasley, et al. 2015. “Nanosecond Laser Textured Superhydrophobic Metallic Surfaces and Their Chemical Sensing Applications.” Appl. Surface Sci. 357: 248–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsusc.2015.09.027.

Chau, Y.-X., C. Connaughton, and S. G. Grosskinsky. 2015. “Explosive Condensation in Symmetric Mass Transport Models.” J. Stat. Mech. Theory E. 2015 (11): P11031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2015/11/p11031.

Peremezhney, N., C. Connaughton, A. Lapkin, and E. Hines. 2014. “Combining Gaussian processes, mutual information and a genetic algorithm for multi-target optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions.” Eng. Optimiz 46 (11): 1593–607. https://doi.org/10.1080/0305215x.2014.881997.

Harper, K. L., S. V. Nazarenko, S. B. Medvedev, and C. Connaughton. 2014. “Wave Turbulence in the Two-Layer Ocean Model.” J. Fluid Mech. 756: 309–27. https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2014.465.

Harris, J., C. Connaughton, and M. D. Bustamante. 2013. “Percolation transition in the kinematics of nonlinear resonance broadening in Charney-Hasegawa-Mima model of Rossby wave turbulence.” New J. Phys. 15: 083011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/15/8/083011.

Jones, P. P., R. C. Ball, and C. Connaughton. 2013. “Nonlinear Least-Squares Method for the Inverse Droplet Coagulation Problem.” Phys. Rev. E 88: 012138. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.88.012138 .

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, R. Tribe, and O. Zaboronski. 2013. “Non-Equilibrium Phase Diagram for a Model with Coalescence, Evaporation and Deposition.” J. Stat. Phys. 152 (6): 1115–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-013-0800-2.

Gallagher, S., B. Hnat, C. Connaughton, S. Nazarenko, and G. Rowlands. 2012. “The modulational instability in the extended Hasegawa-Mima equation with a finite Larmor radius.” Phys. Plasmas 19 (12): 122115-122115-10. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4773050.

Connaughton, C., and J. R. Ockendon. 2012. “Interactions of point vortices in the Zabusky-McWilliams model with a background flow.” Discrete Cont. Dyn-B 17 (6): 1795–807. https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdsb.2012.17.1795.

Harris, J., M. D. Bustamante, and C. Connaughton. 2012. “Externally forced triads of resonantly interacting waves: Boundedness and integrability properties.” Commun. Nonlinear Sci 17 (12): 4988–5006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2012.04.002.

Krapivsky, P. L., and C. Connaughton. 2012. “Driven Brownian coagulation of polymers.” J. Chem. Phys. 136: 204901. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4718833.

Bos, W. J. T., C. Connaughton, and F. Godeferd. 2012. “Developing homogeneous isotropic turbulence.” Physica D 241 (3): 232–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2011.02.005.

Ball, R. C., C. Connaughton, P. P. Jones, R. and Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2012. “Collective Oscillations in Irreversible Coagulation Driven by Monomer Inputs and Large-Cluster Outputs.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 109: 168304. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.109.168304.

Peremezhney, N., C. Connaughton, G. Unali, E. Hines, and A. Lapkin. 2012. “Application of Dimensionality Reduction to Visualisation of High-Throughput Data and Building of a Classification Model in Formulated Consumer Product Design.” Chem. Eng. Res. Des. 90 (12): 2179–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cherd.2012.05.010.

Connaughton, C., and P. P. Jones. 2011. “Some remarks on the inverse Smoluchowski problem for cluster-cluster aggregation .” J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 333: 012005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/333/1/012005.

Ball, R. C., C. Connaughton, T. H. M. Stein, and O. Zaboronski. 2011. “Instantaneous gelation in Smoluchowski’s coagulation equation revisited.” Phys. Rev. E 84 (1): 011111. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.84.011111.

Connaughton, C., Nazarenko, S. V., and Quinn, B. E. 2011. “Feedback of zonal flows on wave turbulence driven by small-scale instability in the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima model .” EPL 96 (2): 25001. https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/96/25001.

Connaughton, C., and McAdams, R. 2011. “Mixed Flux-Equipartition Solutions of a Diffusion Model of Nonlinear Cascades.” EPL 95 (2): 24005. https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/95/24005.

Connaughton, C., and J. Harris. 2010. “Scaling properties of one-dimensional cluster-cluster aggregation with Lévy diffusion.” J. Stat. Mech.: Theor. E. 2010 (05): P05003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2010/05/p05003.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2010. “On the non-equilibrium phase transition in evaporation–deposition models.” J. Stat. Mech. Theor. E., P09016. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2010/09/p09016.

Connaughton, C., B. Nadiga, S. V. Nazarenko, and B. E. Quinn. 2010. “Modulational instability of Rossby and drift waves and the generation of zonal jets.” J. Fluid Mech. 654: 207–31. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022112010000510.

Kirkilionis, M., F. Kepes, and C. Connaughton. 2010. “European Conference on Complex Systems 2009 .” Adv. Complex Sys. 13 (3): 251–52. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525910002657.

Connaughton, C., and A. C. Newell. 2010. “Dynamical Scaling and the Finite Capacity Anomaly in 3-Wave Turbulence.” Phys. Rev. E 81: 036303. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.81.036303.

Connaughton, C., and P. L. Krapivsky. 2010. “Aggregation–fragmentation processes and decaying three-wave turbulence.” Phys. Rev. E 81: 035303(R). https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.81.035303.

Connaughton, C. 2009. “Numerical Solutions of the Isotropic 3-Wave Kinetic Equation.” Physica D 238 (23-24): 2282–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2009.09.012.

Bandi, M. M., S. G. Chumakov, and C. Connaughton. 2009. “Probability Distribution of Power Fluctuations in Turbulence.” Phys. Rev. E 79 (1): 016309. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.79.016309.

Bandi, M. M., and C. Connaughton. 2008. “Craig’s XY-Distribution and the Statistics of Lagrangian Power in Two-Dimensional Turbulence.” Phys. Rev. E 77 (March): 036318. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.77.036318.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2008. “Constant Flux Relation for Diffusion Limited Cluster–Cluster Aggregation.” Phys. Rev. E 78 (041403). https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.78.041403.

Chertkov, M., C Connaughton, I. Kolokolov, and V. Lebedev. 2007. “Dynamics of energy condensation in two–dimensional turbulence.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 99: 084501. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.99.084501.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2007. “Constant Flux Relation for driven dissipative systems.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 98: 080601. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.98.080601.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2007. “Constant Flux Relation for Models with Desorption and Fragmentation.” Physica A 384 (1): 108–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2007.04.074.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2006. “Cluster-cluster aggregation as an analogue of a turbulent cascade : Kolmogorov phenomenology, scaling laws and the breakdown of self-similarity.” Physica D 222: 97–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2006.08.005.

Connaughton, C., C. Josserand, A. Picozzi, Y. Pomeau, and S. Rica. 2005. “Condensation of classical nonlinear waves.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 95: 263901. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.95.263901.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2005. “Breakdown of Kolmogorov scaling in models of cluster aggregation.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 94: 194503. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.94.194503.

Connaughton, C., and S. V. Nazarenko. 2004. “Warm cascades and anomalous scaling in a diffusion model of turbulence.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 92 (4): 044501. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.92.044501.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2004. “Stationary Kolmogorov solutions of the Smoluchowski aggregation equation with a source term.” Phys. Rev. E 69: 061114. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.69.061114.

Connaughton, C., and Y. Pomeau. 2004. “Kinetic theory and Bose-Einstein condensation.” C. R. Phys. 5 (1): 91–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crhy.2004.01.006.

Biven, L., C. Connaughton, and A. C. Newell. 2003. “Structure functions and breakdown criteria for wave turbulence.” Physica D 184 (1–4): 98–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2789(03)00215-x.

Connaughton, C., A. C. Newell, and Y. Pomeau. 2003. “Non–stationary spectra of local wave turbulence.” Physica D 184 (1–4): 64–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2789(03)00213-6.

Connaughton, C., A. C. Newell, and S. V. Nazarenko. 2003. “Dimensional analysis and wave turbulence.” Physica D 184 (1–4): 86–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2789(03)00214-8.

Connaughton, C., S. V. Nazarenko, and A. N. Pushkarev. 2001. “Discreteness and quasi–resonances in weak turbulence of capillary waves.” Phys. Rev. E 63 (4): 046306. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.63.046306.

Book chapters

Quinn, B. E., S. V. Nazarenko, C. Connaughton, S. Gallagher, and B. Hnat. 2019. “Modulational Instability in Basic Plasma and Geophysical Models.” Chap. 16 in Zonal Jets - Phenomenology, Genesis, and Physics, edited by B. Galperin and P. Read. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107358225.016.

Connaughton, C. 2013. “Numerical Simulation of Continuous Systems.” Chap. 5 in Warwick Complexity Masters, edited by V. Kolokoltsov. Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781139519939.006.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2010. “Kinetics of Cluster–Cluster Aggregation.” Chap. 16 in Handbook of Nanophysics, edited by K. Sattler. Taylor; Francis. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420075557-23.

Connaughton, C., R. Rajesh, and O. Zaboronski. 2009. “Reaction Diffusion Systems and Turbulence.” In Turbulence and Non-Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics, edited by S. Nazarenko and O. Zaboronski. London Mathematical Society Lecture Note Series (No. 355). CUP.

Conference proceedings

Steinkamp, Simon, Benjamin Skjold, Maria Elisabeth Catharina van der Weij, Colm Connaughton, Ole Peters, and Oliver Hulme. 2025. “Ergodicity Transformations as Predictors of Risk-Taking Behaviour and Their Functional Neuronal Correlates.” RLDM 2025 & Cognitive Computational Neurosicence.

Egea, Alvaro Cabrejas, and Colm Connaughton. 2020. “Wavelet Augmented Regression Profiling (WARP): Improved Long-Term Estimation of Travel Time Series with Recurrent Congestion.” 2020 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1109/itsc45102.2020.9294318.

Noorbakhsh, Mohammad, Colm Connaughton, and Francisco A Rodrigues. 2020. “Discovering Causal Factors of Drought in Ethiopia.” Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Climate Informatics, 72–78. https://doi.org/10.1145/3429309.3429320.

Egea, Alvaro Cabrejas, Shaun Howell, Maksis Knutins, and Colm Connaughton. 2020. “Assessment of Reward Functions for Reinforcement Learning Traffic Signal Control Under Real-World Limitations.” 2020 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), 965–72. https://doi.org/10.1109/smc42975.2020.9283498.

Kalair, Kieran, and Colm Connaughton. 2018. “Large Scale Performance Assessment of the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards Model on a Smart Motorway.” 2018 21st International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 3718–23. https://doi.org/10.1109/itsc.2018.8569699.

Egea, Alvaro Cabrejas, Peter de Ford, and Colm Connaughton. 2018. “Estimating Baseline Travel Times for the UK Strategic Road Network.” 2018 21st International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 531–36. https://doi.org/10.1109/itsc.2018.8569924.